“Arguably, this is one of the most significant trends facing the world in the coming century,” says Philip Jenkins, one of the most significant historians working today. And yet I hear few Christians talking about this trend.

It’s the link between fertility and faith. Jenkins’s argument is not hard to track. If a country has a fertility rate of 2.1 or fewer children per woman, the population will age and contract. And those contracting societies around the world, despite many differences, all tend to be secularizing rapidly. That includes the United States, with a rate of 1.7, which mirrors secular Scandinavia.

You don’t need to debate causation or correlation in order to recognize Jenkins’s point. If trends continue, Western leadership in global Christainity will continue to diminish, at an even more rapid pace than Jenkins had first predicted back in 2002 with his seminal book, The Next Christendom. Current trends suggest that Africa will be home to more than 1 billion Christians within the next 30 years.

So keep an eye on the work of our friends with TGC Africa. They look like the future of Christianity.